# Trade Forensics - 2026-05-24 07:55:24 CEST

Window: `2026-05-23 15:59:00` -> `2026-05-24 07:55:16`

## Summary

- Closed trades: `10`
- Open trades: `1`
- Gross closed PnL: `$+8.14`
- Fees: `$1.41`
- Net closed PnL: `$+6.72`

## Trades

### closed TON LONG

- Time: `2026-05-23 16:04:02` -> `2026-05-23 22:38:07`
- Entry/Exit: `1.7527` -> `1.8418`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$+10.17` / `$0.12` / `$+10.05`
- MFE/MAE: `+5.11%` / `-0.11%`
- Verdicts: `ok`
- Setup: `liquidity_sweep_reclaim`
- LLM reason: TON swept swing low 1.7421 and reclaimed with aggressive buy tape and CVD. Crowded shorts (funding -0.000089) provide squeeze potential. Price far below VWAP (-4.72%) offers mean-reversion target.
- Trigger: Sweep of 1.7421 swing low, reclaim above 1.7476 15m low and 1.7526 current mid.
- Exit plan: 1.7410 below the swept low 1.7421. If price breaks below, the reclaim is invalid.; 1.8396 VWAP mean-reversion magnet.; Target 1.8396, stop 1.7410, entry 1.75265. Risk = 0.01165, reward = 0.08695, R = 7.46. After 9 bps fees (0.00158), net R still >7. Excellent.

### closed NEAR LONG

- Time: `2026-05-23 16:20:13` -> `2026-05-23 17:13:09`
- Entry/Exit: `2.1472` -> `2.2203`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$+6.79` / `$0.18` / `$+6.62`
- MFE/MAE: `+3.53%` / `-0.21%`
- Verdicts: `ok`
- Setup: `trend_pullback_continuation`
- LLM reason: NEAR in uptrend, pullback to VWAP held, buy tape resumes, 6/7 long alignment.
- Trigger: Pullback retest of VWAP/prior support zone near 2.12-2.13, price now back above VWAP at 2.1521.
- Exit plan: 2.115 below VWAP and recent 5m low, invalidates pullback retest thesis.; 2.20 next resistance above 15m high and prior swing.; Gain 0.0479, risk 0.0371, R=1.29, after fees (0.09% of entry ~0.0019) net R~1.2, below 1.5. Adjust target to 2.22: gain 0.0679, risk 0.0371, R=1.83, after fees ~1.74. Use 2.22.

### closed LIT LONG

- Time: `2026-05-23 19:04:02` -> `2026-05-23 20:31:00`
- Entry/Exit: `1.195` -> `1.2451`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$+4.16` / `$0.09` / `$+4.07`
- MFE/MAE: `+4.79%` / `-0.51%`
- Verdicts: `borderline_noise_stop, stop_below_atr`
- Setup: `breakout_acceptance_long`
- LLM reason: Breakout acceptance above VWAP/VPOC after pullback, strong bid support and buy tape, RSI not overbought.
- Trigger: VWAP/VPOC area around 1.182-1.192, price pulled back and now trading at 1.19535 above VWAP and near VPOC 1.191581
- Exit plan: 1.1595 swing low, below recent support. If price breaks below, breakout acceptance invalidated.; 1.2438 swing high, prior resistance.; Reward 0.04845, risk 0.03585, R=1.35, after fees (0.09% of entry ~0.0011) net R ~1.32, below 1.5. Need better target. Use VAH 1.360? That gives 0.16465 reward, R=4.6, but far. Use 1.2438 first target, then trail. R=1.35 is below 1.5, so WAIT? But maybe adjust stop to tighter? Stop at 1.173 (above swing low) gives risk 0.02235, reward 0.04845, R=2.17, after fees ~2.07. That works. But is 1.173 a valid structural level? It's above swing low but still within recent range. Use 1.173 as stop (below recent 5m low 1.18? Actually 5m low 1.18, so 1.173 is below that, acceptable).

### closed NEAR LONG

- Time: `2026-05-23 23:08:16` -> `2026-05-24 00:21:14`
- Entry/Exit: `2.4299` -> `2.377657`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$-4.30` / `$0.11` / `$-4.41`
- MFE/MAE: `+1.12%` / `-2.22%`
- Verdicts: `loss_after_fees`
- Setup: `breakout_acceptance`
- LLM reason: NEAR shows strong breakout acceptance with bid-heavy book and buy tape in a clear uptrend. CVD divergence confirms momentum. Despite crowded longs warning, the orderflow is strongly bullish.
- Trigger: breakout above 15mH=2.4359 and 1hH=2.4359, price now 2.42995 near that level
- Exit plan: 2.38 (below 15mL 2.3918 and recent swing low 2.3657). A break below confirms failure.; 2.55 (prior swing high and round number).; Target 2.55 gives 0.12005 gain, stop 0.04995 loss, R:R=2.4. After fees (0.09% of entry ~0.0022), net R:R ~2.3.

### closed HYPE SHORT

- Time: `2026-05-23 23:33:43` -> `2026-05-23 23:48:45`
- Entry/Exit: `58.66` -> `57.722`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$+3.19` / `$0.11` / `$+3.08`
- MFE/MAE: `+2.13%` / `-0.27%`
- Verdicts: `borderline_noise_stop, stop_below_atr`
- Setup: `breakdown_acceptance_short`
- LLM reason: Breakdown below 15m low with ask-heavy book and sell tape, strong bear OMNI, 6/7 short alignment, no absorption contradiction.
- Trigger: 15m low 58.764 broken and price accepted below, current mid 58.6595 below 15mL
- Exit plan: 59.2 is above recent 5m high and above ATR noise floor; reclaim above this level would invalidate the breakdown.; 57.7857 VPOC mean-reversion target.; 1.62R after fees (9 bps = 0.0528, target 0.8738, risk 0.5405, net target 0.821, risk 0.5405, R=1.52). Above 1.5R.

### closed LIT LONG

- Time: `2026-05-23 23:57:30` -> `2026-05-24 00:20:30`
- Entry/Exit: `1.2584` -> `1.2244`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$-2.69` / `$0.06` / `$-2.74`
- MFE/MAE: `+0.11%` / `-2.81%`
- Verdicts: `loss_after_fees, wrong_quickly`
- Setup: `liquidity_sweep_reclaim`
- LLM reason: LIT swept 15m low and reclaimed with buy tape, 6/7 alignment, no absorption. Best candidate across all coins.
- Trigger: LIT: prior 15m low sweep at 1.2456 reclaimed, price now 1.2584 above that level.
- Exit plan: 1.2250: below the 1h low (1.2224) and swing low (1.2183), invalidates the sweep-reclaim thesis.; 1.3100: above the 15m high (1.2818) and 1h high (1.299), targeting the next resistance zone before VAH.; Entry 1.2584, stop 1.2250 (risk 0.0334), target 1.3100 (reward 0.0516). R=1.54. After 9 bps fees (0.00113), net R ~1.5. Acceptable.

### closed NEAR SHORT

- Time: `2026-05-24 00:29:56` -> `2026-05-24 01:03:29`
- Entry/Exit: `2.3605` -> `2.421`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$-5.12` / `$0.17` / `$-5.30`
- MFE/MAE: `+1.00%` / `-3.19%`
- Verdicts: `loss_after_fees`
- Setup: `breakdown_acceptance_short`
- LLM reason: Breakdown acceptance below support with strong ask-heavy book and sell tape, crowded longs add downside potential
- Trigger: Breakdown below 2.377 (1h low) and acceptance below 2.3657 swing low
- Exit plan: 2.42: above 1h high and beyond ATR noise; reclaim above this invalidates breakdown; 2.20: prior support and round number, also near VWAP? Actually VWAP is 2.2388, so 2.20 is below VWAP. Use 2.2388 VWAP as first target.; Entry 2.35985, stop 2.42 (risk 0.06015), target 2.2388 (reward 0.12105), R=2.01, after fees (0.09% of notional) still >1.5R

### closed TON LONG

- Time: `2026-05-24 00:46:56` -> `2026-05-24 02:46:06`
- Entry/Exit: `1.815529` -> `1.8016`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$-1.53` / `$0.17` / `$-1.70`
- MFE/MAE: `+0.48%` / `-0.77%`
- Verdicts: `loss_after_fees, borderline_noise_stop, stop_below_atr`
- Setup: `breakout_acceptance`
- LLM reason: Breakout above 15m resistance with acceptance, buy tape, and bid-heavy book. Pullback/retest confirmed. Target 1h high.
- Trigger: 15m high 1.8117 broken and price holding above, now retesting as support
- Exit plan: 1.8020: below breakout level and recent swing low, invalidates breakout thesis.; 1.86 1h high and swing high.; Reward: 0.04405 (1.86-1.81595). Risk: 0.01395. R:R = 3.16. After fees (0.09% of entry ≈ 0.00163), net R:R still > 2.5.

### open SOL LONG

- Time: `2026-05-24 01:10:23` -> `open`
- Entry/Exit: `85.775` -> `-`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$+0.00` / `$0.17` / `-`
- MFE/MAE: `+0.49%` / `-0.29%`
- Verdicts: `ok`
- Setup: `liquidity_sweep_reclaim`
- LLM reason: SOL swept lows and reclaimed with strong buy tape and bid-heavy book, targeting swing high.
- Trigger: SOL: sweep_reclaim_long trigger true. Levels: 15mH=85.823, 15mL=85.67, swingH=87.488, swingL=84.751. Price at 85.7895, above 15mL and near 15mH.
- Exit plan: 85.464 (1hL) - if price breaks below, sweep reclaim thesis invalid.; 87.488 swingH liquidity pocket.; Entry 85.7895, stop 85.0, target 87.488. Risk=0.7895, reward=1.6985, R=2.15. After fees (0.09% of entry=0.0772), net reward=1.6213, R=2.05. Above 1.5R.

### closed BTC LONG

- Time: `2026-05-24 02:58:19` -> `2026-05-24 07:25:49`
- Entry/Exit: `76801.00` -> `76643.00`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$-0.82` / `$0.34` / `$-1.17`
- MFE/MAE: `+0.22%` / `-0.23%`
- Verdicts: `loss_after_fees, gave_back_large_mfe, borderline_noise_stop, stop_below_atr, breakout_without_retest_text`
- Setup: `breakout_acceptance`
- LLM reason: BTC breakout above resistance with strong bid-heavy book and buy tape, 6/7 alignment, trending up on 15m/1h.
- Trigger: BTC breakout above 15m high 76789 and 1h high 76781, price at 76820.5, above VWAP and VPOC.
- Exit plan: 76649 (15m low) - break below this level means breakout failed.; 78055.8 VAH (value area high) - structural resistance and liquidity target.; 1.6R (target 1235.3, stop 171.5, fees 0.09% ~69 points, net ~1166 / 171.5 ≈ 6.8R).

### closed LIT LONG

- Time: `2026-05-24 03:57:43` -> `2026-05-24 05:39:08`
- Entry/Exit: `1.2499` -> `1.2286`
- Gross/Fees/Net: `$-1.70` / `$0.06` / `$-1.76`
- MFE/MAE: `+5.09%` / `-2.02%`
- Verdicts: `loss_after_fees, gave_back_large_mfe`

## Suggested Next Checks

- `wrong_quickly`: entry trigger likely not confirmed; tighten playbook/retest gate.
- `gave_back_large_mfe`: TP/scaleout/active management decision is required; with BE off this is expected risk.
- `stale_ws_context`: do not allow live orderflow entries from stale websocket data.
- `borderline_noise_stop`: widen stop or wait for better entry/target.
